The climate on earth is changing. So what's the big deal?
Climate has historically changed, from Ice Ages to warming periods. Scientists currently have climate data that go back nearly 400,000 years, and as technology improves, so does the accuracy of the data. Global circulation models (GCM) help scientists to test and confirm the data and predict the effects of climatic change, and those models, once primitive and inaccurate, are rapidly improving in their ability to inform us.
The real problem facing us now is that the changes in climate currently being observed do not fit into the pattern of historical variation. Instead, we are seeing unprecedented changes, outside the historic range of climactic factors, and while some parts of the puzzle are still uncertain, what is certain is that the world we live in is dramatically changing.
How do we know climate change is real?
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a consortium of leading scientists in a wide range of climate-related subjects from nations all around the world. The IPCC's latest report in 2007 declared: "
Warming of the climate system is now unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." The authors continue to assert that with 90 percent certainty,
most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is due to the observed increased in manmade greenhouse gas concentrations.
Unprecedented levels of greenhouse gases are being released by human activity and altering the earth's climate.
1 Carbon dioxide levels are higher today than they have been in 800,000 years.
2 Over the course of the past 400,000 years, the level of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere has fluctuated, never falling below 180 parts per million and never rising above 300. Since the mid 1800s, however, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has skyrocketed to 380 parts per million. Both the speed and magnitude of the present increase in carbon dioxide levels are unprecedented and are directly attributable to humanity's use of natural resources since the Industrial Revolution.
3
If this is all true, why do some people say climate change isn't a problem?
Because global climate is such a complex system with many various factors acting at the local, regional and global scale, it is very difficult to predict outcomes because there are so many different ways these factors can behave and interact. Furthermore, not all observations will be consistent with a global warming trend because of local factors and interactions. Plus, it takes a long time for the effects of climate change to accumulate into noticeable change, so while climate is and has been changing, many of the dramatic changes are yet to come.
Think of watching the weather for one day in your hometown. It may be sunny and warm, but maybe it's above average temperature that particular day. Maybe it's below average temperature. And maybe a big storm is brewing to the west and hasn't reached your town yet, so you don't know that in two days it will be rainy and windy. Plus, based on that day alone, you won't know what the weather will be like in two years, or five years, or ten years, or whether it's been getting colder or warmer. That's because local measurements reflect local conditions and interactions, not trends that occur over large spatial areas over a long period of time.
There will be a great deal of variation across the globe, and not all observations will fit the pattern, but there is a pattern, and the evidence is mounting. The world's climate is changing, and we will have to change our lives with it.
What can we do about increased atmospheric carbon dioxide?
EcoLogic is working to address climate change through carbon sequestration, or the capture and storage of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Twenty percent of global carbon dioxide emissions come from deforestation, and EcoLogic aims to address this problem while simultaneously protecting biodiversity and ensuring sustainable livelihoods in rural communities of Central America. EcoLogic works with community-based organizations to plant new trees and restore existing forests, alleviating damage from deforestation and offsetting carbon emissions.
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